Civil War of America 2020's

Could it happen?

By James Breedlove

The thought of Civil War in this day and age seems to be preposterous and many ways that may be correct from a civilian perspective.  That doesn't mean it isn't or hasn't been looked at in depth by leaders in the government and in the military forces.  What constitutes the need for a civil war and what constitutes an civil uprising?  There may be broad ideas to what exactly it would take to create instances of either and war or uprising.  But in recent times we have come to learn an uprising is feasible and can be organized in very short time.  

The need for a civil war general comes when conditions of inequality have risen to a level where people, the public can no longer tolerate it, then all other measures have been somewhat exhausted.  Generally encompassing uprisings, demonstrations, and moderate clashes with government agencies and a public entity.  But this is just a vague description as many dynamics may fall into the making of a civil war.  One thing is known though, in order to have a war there must be leaders, facilitators or conspirators to lead such a war.  It can be formed hastily as a matter of need or because of events as a resistance to combatant forces overcoming our freedoms, for which we enjoy as Americans.  Secondly, resistance components can be generated due to a prolonged aggression or tyranny from the government or government agencies, for which the components are able to form organized war doctrine.  

Many different scenarios are possible but certain truths are inevitable, in order for a uprising to become a war, clear resolve must be present, leaders and organizers must be present and have enough trust to lead a greater multitude of people, resources must be present to accommodate or facilitate an organized force greater than a militia in size and have sufficient logistical, tactical and technical skills to be persistent in a war effort.  While these thing are necessary, any force or uprising that will challenge the actual government and its military force must incorporate massive resources, understand the logistics necessary to move people and overcome the response ability of the governing nation.  Preferably any actions that seriously have a role in taking on a military force as well equipped and trained as with a country like the US, would need to enroll support from foreign nations as well.  It should be understood, where the resolve lay in overcoming a uprising which leads to civil war the battlefield would be littered with souls.  Most nationstates will go as far as necessary to repel the overthrow of its government.  In a worse case scenario the government authorizes unconventional warfare use to quale the entire active movements of a aggressor.  A civilian public, force or militia or even foreign aggressor do not have at their fingertips that ability.  Unless a foreign nation state is involved, from a largely developed nation having unconventional warfare delivery systems. Nobody except perhaps those who have served in the military or military leaders and its community likely understand the level upheaval that might ensue if a full on war effort was generated.  I believe I would rather be on the side for which the military presided.  And certainly, there could be factions within the military itself that would break ranks pending what party the identified with, but I would largely believe that most would stand true to their military training, their unit and compadres when it came down to it.  Hard decision on some's behalf to select between family going the opposite direction and the troops in a different direction.  As a soldier you would know how it might end for anyone who opposed a well oiled machine of war.  

By now some of you reading this and thought of the likelihood of civil war might be a good thing, probably have a knot in their stomach or err of disbelief.  It is way farther complex than most might realize, the mechanism for war in the US in particularly is huge.  Think about nearly a Trillion dollars have went into the upgrade of military machinery, missile and troop integration equipment, vehicles and research and development.  Notice I capitalize the "T", meaning that more money has been spent on the military than most of the US states GDP per year, only falling behind California, Texas, Florida and New York.  Yes of course that means that a war with the military will likely not end so well unless the revolt was nationwide than the likelihood of the military actually being able to be used against the civilian populace would be slim, but still could result in massive carnage pending the action of a few, leave it like that.  

Uprisings are normally suppressed by a state's militia where local, county and/or state police are unable to or hindered in suppressing the quantity of people or technically unable to do so.  Therefore, a simple uprising to show your dislike is likely not going to impact the government from doing what it will.  Organization to launch an outright besiegement of the government is likely far fetched, but having seen 2020 now, I think we can all agree that anything is possible.  However, highly improbable.  Take the million man march for Trump, there may have been a million present.  Who knows.  Good size number which equal the number in the military.  But, there likely would have to be at least twice that number, less every single one were armed and supplied, led and organized, if not then perhaps they they should focus on things other than that.  

Yes, it is possible for a small but highly organized and determined group to do harm to the greater bureaucracy, but this is not about that.  This is about whether or not a civil war might or could happen.  In short, in my opinion a civil war is very slim if lead by a civilian body, group, etc.  But, the dynamics change greatly if such a event occur and the public support or at least a faction of the public support was with its military... it is highly likely they would prevail.

This text is of my own opinion and does not represent others, including the government or any other faction but derives from aspects presented from the government and its military, and military doctrine, national response plan, and continuity of government implementation conjecture.

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